Hoodie Network
Black Monday, the day that most head coaching firings happen, has come and gone. However, I still think that there are a couple of coaches that will get the axe in the coming days. Let’s discuss the official and potential openings, as well as rank the openings going into next season!
In-Season Firings
Raiders - Josh McDaniels, 2nd season, 3-5 (9-16)
Josh McDaniels has almost proven himself at this point to be a below average head coach. Yes, the Raiders roster was not very talented, but as the head coach you have input on who is on that roster. Especially when you are an offensive coach and decide to make Jimmy G your starter. I think he can be a good/great offensive coordinator, but I don’t think he’ll get another head coaching job for at least a couple years.
Panthers - Frank Reich, 1st season, 1-10
The Panthers fired Frank Reich midway through the 1st season of his 4-year contract. I disagree with this move whole-heartedly. Not only has Reich proved that he can elevate offensive production despite below average QB play, but they didn’t even give him or Bryce Young a full season to adjust to each other. Rookie QBs are almost never excellent right when they get to the league, so firing the HC because the team struggled early makes no sense.
Chargers - Brandon Staley, 3rd season, 5-9 (24-25)
I think I can confidently say that Staley didn’t improve on anything the Chargers had going during his tenure. His franchise QB Justin Herbert is really good, but hasn’t really gotten better as a player or had more success since his rookie year. The defense has paid top dollar for top players, but hasn’t had top results. In his second season as coach, the team won 1 more game and blew a 27-0 lead in a playoff game. Although he’s not terrible, Staley hasn’t lived up to the talent or expectations of this Chargers team.
Black Monday(ish) Firings
Falcons - Arthur Smith, 3 seasons, 7-10 (21-30)
For reasons that I think only he knows, Arthur Smith refused to involve the team’s three best offensive players in the offense. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson represent 3 straight years of top 10 picks. Not using them is not only a bad use of resources, it’s bad coaching. In addition, the Falcons have another top 10 pick this year, which means Arthur Smith is responsible for 3 out of 4 straight years in the top 10. That’s pretty much an automatic firing in the NFL.
Commanders - Ron Rivera, 4 seasons, 4-13 (26-41-1)
Ron Rivera is well-regarded as a good coach. That doesn’t mean that he hasn’t underachieved the past few seasons. The Commanders have had a great defense over his tenure, but the offense has been ugly pretty much the whole time. They did win the division in his first year, but that was with a losing record and mostly because Dak Prescott was out for the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Rivera called it a career after being let go.
Titans - Mike Vrabel, 6 seasons, 6-11 (54-45)
This one is puzzling at first, but I have a theory! Mike Vrabel has been a tremendous coach for the Titans, but they have failed to supply him with sufficient talent on the roster. The only logical conclusion is that Vrabel informed the ownership that he planned on quitting, but they wanted to do him a solid and fired him so that he would still get his contract paid out. Right? Right?! Vrabel is too good of a coach to just fire because he couldn’t have a winning season with Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, and Malik Willis.
Patriots - Bill Belichick, 24 seasons, 4-13 (296-133)
Bill Belichick finally decided to leave his longtime home of New England. He has had a historic amount of success, but also was solely responsible for the failings in the recent years. He was the general manager. He was the one responsible for the lack of talent on the roster. Failed draft picks, failed signings, and failed coaching hirings. However, there is no denying he is still an excellent head coach, and specifically on the defensive side of the ball. Pretty much any team would want him as a coach, but some might not want to give him the same power over player personnel that he has in New England.
Seahawks - Pete Carroll, 14 seasons, 9-8 (147-98-1)
Pete Carroll is out as head coach, but will stick around as an advisor to the Seahawks. This feels like the management in Seattle has too much respect for Pete to just straight up say he was “fired”. The Seahawks have been playing good football since Russell Wilson left, but the Seahawks must feel like a younger coach can help them turn the corner. Pete Carrol is a legend in football and goes out with a long list of awards and accomplishments.
Potential Openings
Dallas Cowboys - Mike McCarthy, 4 seasons, 12-5 (43-28)
I know that firing a coach with three consecutive 12-5 seasons sounds strange, but the Cowboys have failed to achieve post-season success. Not only that, but they just got embarrassed in the first round of the playoffs… at home. Add to that the fact that someone like Bill Belichick is available for hire and you get the perfect scenario to fire Mike McCarthy. To me, I don’t see any way that McCarthy is back in Dallas next year.
Philadelphia Eagles - Nick Sirianni, 3 seasons, 11-6 (36-20)
Now this one seems even crazier, and honestly I think there’s only about a 70% chance of happening. Sirianni got them to the Super Bowl last year. He’s never had a losing season. He’s a player and fan favorite. So why fire him? Well, the Eagles started 10-1, but then completely melted down. They went 1-6 in the regular season, finishing with indefensible losses to the Cardinals and Giants to keep them from getting home field advantage in the playoffs. They then got blown out by the Bucs in their first playoff game. To be honest, it felt like the team didn’t want to play for the past couple of weeks, and that blame lands square on the shoulder of Nick Sirianni. This Eagles might give Sirianni another chance based on his previous success, but they also might call Bill Belichick.
Running It Back
Bears - Matt Eberflus, 2 seasons, 7-10 (10-24)
To me, this is an obvious bad decision. Eberflus has not proven that he can lead a winning football team. You’d think with Caleb Williams coming to town in a few months that they’d at least make a run at Lions OC Ben Johnson, but I guess that they don’t want a great offensive mind to pair with their young franchise QB. I don’t know, maybe I’m the one that doesn’t get it, but it seems like they just don’t know how to run a successful team in Chicago.
Saints - Dennis Allen, 2 seasons, 9-8 (16-18)
Dennis Allen hasn’t shown anything that makes me confident in his coaching ability. In fact, given the antics that happened in the final game of the year, it seems like the players don’t have much respect or confidence in him either. If you are the owner or GM, what possible positive outcomes could come from bringing Dennis Allen back? They might win their lackluster division next year, but that wouldn’t be because of Dennis Allen. If anything, it would be despite of Dennis Allen. Other than that, nothing good can happen. At the very least, it would be better to bring new energy into the locker room.
Opening Rankings
1. Dallas Cowboys
This team, although they’ve underachieved, has no glaring weaknesses. They have a phenomenal defense and great offensive pieces. They play great football, but just haven’t been able to put it all together. This is the perfect spot for a great HC to come and fill in the gaps and lead them immediately to the Super Bowl.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Again, this one isn’t a sure-fire opening, but you can’t deny the talent on the roster. Yes, the defense is bad and needs rebuilt, but the offense can play like the best in the league on any given night. The defense has some good players, and a great defensive coach could turn the unit around quickly.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
What’s the hardest thing to find in football? A franchise QB. The Chargers have theirs. Yes, he is only on his rookie contract for one more season, but he’s good enough to lead a team to success even with a large contract. Their cap situation will mean that they will have to let go of some major pieces, but they have the most important one secured for a long time.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a very talented offense and fairly talented defense. They are just missing the quarterback and right coach to elevate them. They have the 9th pick in the draft, which is just a bit out of reach to take a QB. They’re going to have to trade or sign a new QB. Kirk Cousins is the best QB on the free agent market, but the rest are high level backups. Which leads us to the likely scenario that they trade for Justin Fields, most likely the 43rd overall pick and some late round pick swaps.
5. Washington Commanders
I’d say there is a 75% chance that Eric Bienemy is there hire here, but that hasn’t been announced so let’s act like it’s wide open. They have a talented defense, good offensive pieces, and the 2nd overall pick in the draft. The only reason this opening isn’t ranked above the Falcons job is because I am a firm believer in Justin Fields. We’ll see how my prospect rankings shake out, but it looks like Drake Maye is the likely pick. With the NFL becoming more and more an offensive league, I expect another offensive minded hire here.
6. New England Patriots
The Pats have a great defense, and Christian Gonzalez coming back from injury to bolster the secondary. However, they’ve got almost nothing on offense. They have the 3rd pick in the draft. They could take a QB, but even if that QB is good they have too little talent on the offense for it to matter. I’d suggest taking Marvin Harrison Jr given Belichick’s inability to draft a good WR. However, if they do hire a new coach, they might want to take their QB of the future.
7. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are in a tough spot. They drafted a young QB last year, but I don’t think they are tied to him because he was selected in the 2nd round. They have the 7th pick, but that’s not early enough to draft a top QB without trading up. They have some talented players, but neither the offense or the defense is a cohesively great unit. I think they’re good enough to play above .500 ball at their best, but they could also be in the top 5 in next year’s draft as well. I think they should focus on bringing in as much talent as possible until they can hopefully draft a QB next year.
8. Las Vegas Raiders
This roster has a lot of holes, and the Raiders are going to need a new GM as well as HC. If they hire a good GM, they have the resources to fill those holes. They have draft picks and the 9th most cap space going into next season. The QB spot is the biggest need and they won’t be able to draft one this year. They might take another stab at signing one, maybe Kirk Cousins, but I doubt it. I think they are another team that should acquire talent and try to make a nice landing spot for next year’s rookie QB.
9. Carolina Panthers
I’d like to make it clear that I am not a Bryce Young hater. I think that, at his best, he can be a mid level QB. I don’t think he can be a QB that elevates their team above their talent level. I think he’s just too small and doesn’t have the athleticism to overcome his stature. Whoever is hired as the next HC is tied to Bryce Young. And when Young fails to be a gamechanger, the ownership will put at least some of that blame on the new HC.